The market plunging shouldn�� surprise the readers who have been following our monthly market valuation comment. The market has been overvalued for a while. When it is overvalued, it may still go up. Just the risk is much higher and the possible returns will be much lower. The market plunging may hurt a lot of people. But it is good news for those who are prepared. It is hard to hold cash sometimes. But it is a discipline required for long-term successful investing.
It is a good thing to see the market going in the direction of more reasonable valuation. Though it is still not enough to be fair valued or give satisfactory future returns.
GuruFocus hosts three pages about market valuations. The first is the market valuation based on the ratio of total market cap over GDP; the second is the measurement of the U.S. market valuation based on the Shiller P/E. These pages are for the U.S. market. We have also created a new page for international markets. You can check it out here. All pages are updated at least daily. Monthly data is displayed for international markets.
Why is this important?
As pointed out by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP is ��robably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.��
Knowing the overall market valuation and the expected market returns will give investors a clearer head on where we stand for future market returns. When the overall market is expensive and positioned for poor returns, the overall market risk is high. It is important for investors to be aware of this and take consideration of this in their asset allocation and investing strategies.
Please keep in mind that the long-term valuations published! here do not predict short-term market movement. But they have done a good job predicting the long-term market returns and risks.
Howard Marks also pointed out that investors should always know where we are with the market. Predicting the direction of the market is hard. But investors can always make educated decisions based on current conditions.
Why did we develop these pages?
We developed these pages because of lessons we learned over years of value investing. From the market crashes in 2001 to 2002 and 2008 to 2009, we learned that value investors should also keep an eye on overall market valuation. Many times value investors tend to find cheaper stocks in any market. But a lot of times the stocks they found are just cheaper, instead of cheap. Keeping an eye on the overall market valuation will help us to focus on absolute value instead of relative value.
The indicators we develop focus on long term. They will provide a more objective view on the market.
Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP - Market Valuation and Implied Returns
The information about the market valuation and the implied return based on the ratio of the total market cap over GDP is updated daily. The total market cap as measured by Wilshire 5000 index is now 91% of the US GDP. The stock market will barely return 4.7% a year in the coming years. As a comparison, at the beginning of the year, the ratio of total market cap over GDP was 87.4%, it was likely to return 5.7% a year from that level of valuation. The first quarter gain of 12% has reduced the future gains by about 1.7% a year.
For details, please go to the daily updated page. In general, the returns of investing in an individual stock or in the entire stock market are determined by these three factors:
1. Business growth
If we look at a particular business, the value of the business is determined by how much money this business can make. The growth in the value of the business comes from the growth of the earnings ! of the bu! siness growth. This growth in the business value is reflected as the price appreciation of the company stock if the market recognizes the value, which it does, eventually.
If we look at the overall economy, the growth in the value of the entire stock market comes from the growth of corporate earnings. As we discussed above, over the long term, corporate earnings grow as fast as the economy itself.
2. Dividends
Dividends are an important portion of the investment return. Dividends come from the cash earnings of a business. Everything being equal, a higher dividend payout ratio, in principle, should result in a lower growth rate. Therefore, if a company pays out dividends while still growing earnings, the dividend is an additional return for the shareholders besides the appreciation of the business value.
3. Change in the market valuation
Although the value of a business does not change overnight, its stock price often does. The market valuation is usually measured by the well-known ratios such as P/E, P/S, P/B etc. These ratios can be applied to individual businesses, as well as the overall market. The ratio Warren Buffett uses for market valuation, TMC/GNP, is equivalent to the P/S ratio of the economy.
Putting all three factors together, the return of an investment can be estimated by the following formula:
Investment Return (%) = Dividend Yield (%)+ Business Growth (%)+ Change of Valuation (%)
From the contributions we can get the predicted return of the market.
The Predicted and the Actual Stock Market Returns
This model has done a decent job in predicting the future market returns. You can see the predicted return and the actual return in the chart below.
The prediction from this approach is never an exact number. The return can be as high as 10% a year or as long as -2% a year, depending where the future market valuation will be. In general, investors need to be cautious when the expected return is low.
The GuruFocus Shiller P/E page indicates that the Shiller P/E: 20.5. Shiller P/E is 25% higher than the historical mean of 16.4. Implied future annual return: 3.5%. As a comparison, the regular trailing twelve month P/E is 15, slightly lower than the historical mean of 15.8. That is also why many media pundits are saying that the market is cheap.
The Shiller P/E chart is shown below:
Over the last decade, the Shiller P/E indicated that the best time to buy stocks was March 2009. However, the regular P/E was at its highest level ever. The Shiller P/E, similar to the ratio of the total market cap over GDP, has proven to be a better indication of market valuations.
Overall, the current market valuation is more expensive than the most part of the last 130 years. It is cheaper than most of the time over the last 15 years.
To understand more, please go to GuruFocus' Shiller P/E page.
John Hussman�� Peak P/E:
John Hussman uses the peak P/E ratio to smooth out the distortion of the corporate profits caused by the fluctuations of the profit margins. The current market return projected by his model is 4.4% a year. This agrees with the returns projected by the ratio of total market cap over GDP and Shiller P/E. This is the chart of the actual S&P 500 10-year annual total return and the projected return by John Hussman:
[ Enlarge Image ]
In all the three approaches discussed above, the fluctuations of profit margin are eliminated by using GDP, the average of trailing 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings, and peak-P/E. Therefore they arrive at similar conclusions: The market is overvalued, and it is likely to return only 2-4% a year in the future years.
Jeremy Grantham�� 7-Year Projection:
Jeremy Grantham�� firm GMO publishes a monthly 7-year market forecast. The latest 7-year forecast published by GMO is below:
| Asset Class | Annual Real Return! |
| US Large Cap | -.2% |
| US Small Cap | -1.70% |
| US High Quality | 3.9% |
| International Large Cap | 4.6% |
| International Small Cap | 3.3=40% |
| Emerging Market | 5.2% |
| US Bonds | 0.9% |
| International Bonds | -1.80% |
| emerging Debt | 0.80% |
| Index Linked Bonds | -1.10% |
| Cash | 0.1% |
Insider Trends
As indicated by the three different approaches discussed above, the best buying opportunities over the last five years appeared when the projected returns were at their highest level from October 2008 to April 2009, when investors could expect 10% a year from the U.S. market.
If average investors missed this opportunity, corporate insiders such as CEOs, CFOs and directors did not. As a whole they purchased their own company shares at more than double the normal rate from October 2008 to April 2009. Many of these purchases resulted in multi-bagger gains. This confirmed again the conclusions of earlier studies: The aggregated activities of insiders can serve a good indicator for locating the market bottoms. Insiders as a whole are smart investors of their own companies. They tend to sell more when the market is high, and buy more when the market is low.
As of May, we observed more insider buying activities. This is the current insider trend for S&P 500 companies:
The latest trends of insider buying are updated daily at GuruFocus' Insider Trend page. Data is updated hourly on this page. The insider trends of different sectors are also displayed in this page. The latest insider buying peak is at th! is page: ! September of 2011, when the market was at recent lows.
Conclusion: The market is not cheap, although it is about 8% cheaper than a month ago. It is positioned for about 3-5% of annual returns for the next decade. By watching the overall market valuations and the insider buying trends investors will have a better understanding of the risk and the opportunities. The best time to buy is when the market valuation is low, and insiders are enthusiastic about their own company's stocks.
Investment Strategies at Different Market Levels
The Shiller P/E and the ratio of total market cap over GDP can serve as good guidance for investors in deciding their investment strategies at different market valuations. Historical market returns prove that when the market is fair or overvalued, it pays to be defensive. Companies with high quality business and strong balance sheet will provide better returns in this environment. When the market is cheap, beaten down companies with strong balance sheets can provide outsized returns.
To summarize:
1. When the market is fair valued or overvalued, buy high-quality companies such as those in the Buffett-Munger Screener.
2. When the market is undervalued, buy low-risk beaten-down companies like those in the Ben Graham Net-Net Screener. Buy a basket of them and be diversified.
3. If market is way over valued, stay in cash. You may consider hedging or short.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Emerson Electric Company(EMR)
Emerson Electric Co. operates as a diversified manufacturing and technology company. The company engages in appliance solutions, climate technologies, industrial automation, motor technology, network power, process management, professional tools, and storage solutions businesses. Its appliance solutions business provides appliance controls, appliance motors, heating products, and white-rodgers; climate technology business provides heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) solutions for residential, industrial, and commercial applications; and industrial automation business offers bearings and power transmission products, electrical power generation products, electric motors, variable speed drives and servos, electrical products, material joining solutions, fluid automation products, and wind turbine systems. The company?s motor technology business provides appliance motors, HVACR motors, DC motors, fractional horsepower motors, integral horsepower a nd larger motors, and drives; network power business provides power, precision cooling, connectivity, and embedded solutions; and process management business provides various wireless related products from self-organizing field networks to wireless asset and people tracking. Its professional tools business offers pipe working and threading equipment, pressing technology, utility locating and visual diagnostics systems, drain maintenance tools, power tools, air tools, general purpose hand tools, wet/dry vacs, job site storage equipment, truck tool boxes and equipment, and van storage equipment; and storage solutions business provides shelving and storage products for residential, commercial, and foodservice needs, as well as offers specialized carts, mobile computer workstations, and cabinet fixtures. The company was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Larry Gellar]
Similar to Archer Daniels Midland above, Emerson Electric saw 52-week highs in February but has been down since to a current price of below $50. From a valuation perspective, Emerson is quite attractive – notably P/E and PEG are 15.55 and 0.99 respectively. This is lower than competitors like ABB (ABB) and Hitachi (HIT), and Emerson’s margins are also better than those companies. Specifically, Emerson currently has a gross margin of 39.58% and an operating margin of 17.04%. Aside from the companies listed above, this also beats out General Electric (GE), which has 36.79% and 11.15% for those same numbers respectively. On the other hand, there are also some concerns to be had with EMR. Total cash flow for the past 3 quarters has been a whopping negative $1.8 billion. Shareholders have also been wary of the company’s willingness to take on additional debt. Upcoming earnings for EMR have already been guided downward, and it seems likely that the stock price will fall once the actual results are posted. The wisest thing may be to wait for the stock to bottom out after earnings and then buy it before it creeps back upward. Some investors may find EMR attractive for its dividends; yield is currently at 2.8%.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Uranium Resources Inc.(URRE)
Uranium Resources, Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and mining of uranium properties, using the in situ recovery or solution mining process. It owns developed and undeveloped uranium properties in South Texas; and undeveloped uranium properties in New Mexico. The company?s primary customers include utilities who utilize nuclear power to generate electricity. Uranium Resources, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is based in Lewisville, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Louis]
Uranium exploration, mine development and production company Uranium Resources Inc.(URRE) has watched its stock value skyrocket 179% in the past 12 months -- and it is still trading for less than $2 per share! This is even more impressive when you consider that investors fled the sector in March after the nuclear power plant crisis in Japan, causing URRE to lose close to 50%. Since its March 16 low, shares have climbed 38% to $1.92. With a 52-week trading range of 38 cents to $3.98, look for shares to make their way higher as the sector continues to rebound.
Best Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: S&P Smallcap 600(PH)
Parker Hannifin Corporation manufactures fluid power systems, electromechanical controls, and related components worldwide. Its Industrial segment offers pneumatic and electromechanical components, and systems; filters, systems, and instruments to monitor and remove contaminants from fuel, air, oil, water, and other liquids and gases; connectors that control, transmit, and contain fluid; hydraulic components and systems for builders and users of industrial and mobile machinery and equipment; critical flow components for process instrumentation, healthcare, and ultra-high-purity applications; and static and dynamic sealing devices. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and their replacement markets in the manufacturing, transportation, and processing industries. The company?s Aerospace segment provides flight control systems and components, including hydraulic, electrohydraulic, electric backup hydraulic, electrohydrostatic, and electro -mechanical components for precise control of aircraft rudders, elevators, ailerons, and other aerodynamic control surfaces. It also provides electronics thermal management heat rejection systems, and single-phase and two-phase heat collection systems for radar, ISAR, and power electronics. This segment markets its products primarily to OEMs in the commercial, military, and general aviation markets, as well as to end users. Its Climate and Industrial Controls segment offers systems and components primarily for use in the mobile and stationary refrigeration, and air conditioning industry; and in fluid control applications in various industries, such as processing, fuel dispensing, beverage dispensing, and mobile emissions. This segment serves OEMs and their replacement markets. Parker-Hannifin Corporation markets its products through direct-sales employees, independent distributors, wholesalers, and sales representatives. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered i n Cleveland, Ohio.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Putnam]
Parker Hannifin (PH) operates in a broadly diversified engineering industry with peers such as General Electric (GE) and 3M Company (MMM). Its products serve aerospace, commercial, mobile and industrial markets.
The 2011 fiscal year was stellar for Parker. An all time record of $12.3 billion in sales was reached, a 23.5% increase. Net income increased a whopping 90%.
The common stock currently trades at a price to earnings ratio of 10.5, below the industry average of 14.8 and historical average of 14. Price to book ratio is 2.02 with price to cash flow being 7.3.
Making comparisons in a broadly diversified industry is difficult, since products and service offerings vary greatly between businesses. Therefore, the peer company’s business lines and products were used as the main selection criteria for peer analysis.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Lattice Semiconductor Corporation(LSCC)
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets programmable logic products and related software. The company offers field programmable gate array (FPGA) products, including LatticeECP family for deployment in wireless infrastructure and wireline access equipment, as well as in video and imaging applications; and LatticeXP for the security, surveillance, and display markets. It also provides programmable logic device (PLD) products comprising various versions of ispMACH4000 in-system programmable complex programmable logic device family; MachXO family that is designed for a range of low density applications; platform manager, power manager, and ispClock programmable mixed signal devices; and software development tools and intellectual property cores. The company sells its products directly to end customers through a network of independent manufacturers? representatives and indirectly through a network of independent sell-in and sell-through distributors. It primarily serves original equipment manufacturers in the communications, computing, consumer, industrial, military, automotive, and medical end markets. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Hillsboro, Oregon.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Nancy Zambell]
A survivor of the tech boom and bust cycle, Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: LSCC) has managed to consistently grow its new product revenue by 28% per quarter since 2006. And that astounding figure includes one of the worst recessions in our history, as well as a downturn in the semiconductor market. The company’s primary customers are original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the communications, computing, consumer, industrial, automotive, medical and military end markets. Its strongest markets include the fastest-growing segments in our economy today.
LSCC intends to focus on aggressively expanding its mid-range markets, as well as its products for lower-power, lower-cost applications. It also plans to continue targeting customized solutions for its customers, all the while, continuing to increase its flow of new product growth and entry into new markets.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Global Payments Inc.(GPN)
Global Payments Inc. provides electronic transaction processing services for merchants, independent sales organizations (ISO), financial institutions, government agencies, and multi-national corporations located in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. It offers a comprehensive line of processing solutions for credit and debit cards; business-to-business purchasing cards; gift cards; and electronic check conversion and check guarantee, verification, and recovery, including electronic check services, as well as terminal management. The company also offers proprietary software products to establish revolving check cashing limits for the casinos? customers in the gaming industry. In addition, it sells, installs, and services automated teller machine and point of sale terminals; and provides card issuing services, including card management and card personalization. The company markets its products directly, as well as through ISOs, retail outlets, tra de associations, alliance bank relationships, and financial institutions. Global Payments Inc. has a joint venture with La Caixa Group to provide merchant acquiring services to merchants in Spain. Global Payments Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Vatalyst]
Global Payments (GPN) common stock currently trades at a price earnings ratio of 15.9, slightly above its 10 year median of 15. The price to book ratio is 2.92. Its price to cash flow ratio sits at 10.7.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Capstone Turbine Corporation(CPST)
Capstone Turbine Corporation develops, manufactures, markets, and services turbine generator sets and related parts for use in stationary distributed power generation applications. Its stationary distributed power generation applications include cogeneration combined heat and power (CHP), integrated (CHP), resource recovery, and secure power, as well as combined cooling, heat, and power; and its products are used as battery charging generators for hybrid electric vehicle applications. The company primarily offers microturbine units, subassemblies, and components. It also provides various accessories, including rotary gas compressors with digital controls, heat recovery modules for CHP applications, dual mode controllers that allow automatic transition between grid connect and stand-alone modes, batteries with digital controls for stand-alone/dual-mode operations, power servers for multipacked installations, and protocol converters for Internet access, as well as frames, ex haust ducting, and installation hardware. Further, it remanufactures microturbine engines; and provides after-market parts and services, scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, and factory and on-site training services. The company?s microturbines can be fueled by various sources, including natural gas, propane, sour gas, landfill or digester gas, kerosene, diesel, and biodiesel. It primarily sells its products directly to end users, as well as through distributors in North America, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Russian Federation, and South America. Capstone Turbine Corporation was founded in 1988 and is based in Chatsworth, California.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Louis Navellier]
Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) develops, manufactures, markets and services microturbine technology solutions. The stock has gained 88% year to date, compared to just 6% for the S&P 500 Index. It should also be mentioned that CPST posted quarterly revenue growth of 51%, year over year, last quarter.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: Ford Motor Credit Company(F)
Ford Motor Company primarily develops, manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles and parts worldwide. It operates in two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector offers vehicles primarily under the Ford and Lincoln brand names. This sector markets cars, trucks, and parts through retail dealers in North America, and through distributors and dealers outside of North America. It also sells cars and trucks to dealers for sale to fleet customers, including daily rental car companies, commercial fleet customers, leasing companies, and governments. In addition, this sector provides retail customers with a range of after-sale vehicle services and products in the areas, such as maintenance and light repair, heavy repair, collision repair, vehicle accessories, and extended service contracts under the Ford Service, Lincoln Service, Ford Custom Accessories, Ford Extended Service Plan, and Motorcraft brand names. The Financial Services sector offers vari ous automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. It offers retail financing, which includes retail installment contracts for new and used vehicles; direct financing leases; wholesale financing products that comprise loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; loans to dealers to finance working capital, purchase real estate dealership, and/or make improvements to dealership facilities; and other financing products, as well as provides insurance services. Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Victor Mora]
Ford is a well-established vehicle products and services producer, distributed in a multitude of countries across the globe. The company may be losing its Chief Executive Officer sooner than expected. The stock has been surging over the last year and is now trading at highs not seen for a couple of years. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have had mixed feelings as revenues have been rising while earnings have been mixed. Relative to its peers and sector, Ford Motor is an average year-to-date performer. Look for Ford Motor to OUTPERFORM.
- [By Victor Mora]
Ford is a well-established vehicle products and services producer distributed in a multitude of countries across the globe. As the current CEO, Alan Mulally, prepares to leave, Microsoft may be planning on hiring him as its CEO. The stock has been rising higher in recent years and is now trading at highs for the year. Over the past four quarters, investors in the company have expected a little more. However, earnings and revenue figures have been improving. Relative to its peers and sector, Ford has been an year-to-date average performer. Look for Ford Motor to OUTPERFORM.
Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In Right Now: MetroPCS Communications Inc.(PCS)
MetroPCS Communications, Inc., a wireless telecommunications carrier, together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless broadband mobile services in the United States. Its services include voice services, such as local, domestic long distance, and international call services; and data services, including domestic and international text messaging, multimedia messaging, mobile Internet access, mobile instant messaging, location based services, social networking services, push e-mail, and multimedia streaming and downloads, as well as services provided through the binary runtime environment for wireless (BREW), Blackberry, Windows, and the Android platforms, including ringtones, ring back tones, games, and content applications. The company also offers custom calling features consisting of caller ID, call waiting, three-way calling, and voicemail services. In addition, it sells mobile handsets. The company offers its products and services under the MetroPCS brand name, directl y through the company-operated retail stores and indirectly through independent retail outlets, as well as through Internet. As of December 31, 2010, it served approximately 8.1 million subscribers, as well as operated 159 retail stores primarily in the metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Orlando/Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Francisco, and Tampa/Sarasota. The company is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Larry Gellar]
Although this company is known in some circles for its poor phone service, PCS stock has seen some serious gains in the past 12 months. In fact, look for this trend to continue when earnings are announced on August 2. Much smaller than AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), MetroPCS best compares with Sprint Nextel (S). With an operating margin of 16.79 compared with Sprint Nextel’s 0.15%, it’s clear that MetroPCS is better suited for future growth. Gross margin and PEG are also favorable for MetroPCS, currently 42.69% and 1.36 respectively. For another great Seeking Alpha article on cell phone companies, consider reading this. Perhaps the most important point raised is that Sprint Nextel’s purchases of Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile pose a serious threat to MetroPCS. These companies will fight MetroPCS for the low-end cell phone market and may come out on top due to incr easing problems with MetroPCS’s call quality. Essentially, MetroPCS’s problem is that although it offers unlimited talk, text, and web, these features don’t actually work very well. The future success of this company is highly dependent on an improvement in quality as existing customers continue to get fed up. Luckily for MetroPCS, Sprint seems to be having a setback with its 4G service.
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